BYD (002594): Mo should not look for the length of the supplement to cover his eyes

BYD (002594): Mo should not look for the length of the “supplement” to cover his eyes

Event: The company announced its 2018 annual report. In 2018, it realized revenue of 130.1 billion yuan (ten years + 23%), net profit attributable to mothers of 2.8 billion (-32% per year), and forecasted net profit attributable to mothers in Q1 2019 of 700-900 million.,, + 583%?
+ 779%, the first quarter performance forecast was slightly higher than expected, and the performance achieved high growth.

  Detailed annual report: 1.

Revenue: 76 billion auto-related income in 18 years (ten years + 34%), gross profit margin 19.
.

8%, higher than -4.

5pct, the decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the impact of subsidy decline; mobile phone parts and assembly revenue was 42 billion (previously +4.

9%), gross profit margin 12.

6%, -0 per year.

5pct; of which Q4 single quarter gross margin was 16.

3%, lower than the chain.

9 points, mainly due to changes in income indicators.

  2.

Three rates: 18Q4 sales expense rate 1.

4%, a year / month decrease of 3pct, mainly due to changes in revenue indicators, 1 billion transportation and miscellaneous expenses adjusted to operating costs; management expense ratio 2.

6%, unchanged from the previous month, and decreased by 2.
.

8pct; financial expense ratio 1.

9%, reducing by 0 every year.

2pct, the chain ratio is reduced by 0.

5 points, the three rates as a whole showed a rapid decline.

With the company’s strengthening of cost control in 19 years and the reduction of receivables for new energy vehicles, there is room for the three rates to decrease.

  3.

R & D Expenditure: Expansion of R & D expenditure of 8.5 billion in 18 years, + 36% per year, accounting for 6% of revenue.

6%, +0 per year.

6 points.

  4.

Cash flow: Net operating cash flow of 12.5 billion in early stage, of which Q3 and Q4 were 8.3 billion and 5.9 billion, respectively, showing significant improvement; 5.

Other gains: 18 reached 2.3 billion, mainly due to government subsidies related to daily activities. We believe that the company’s business layout across the country continues to be implemented, and this part of the compensation is likely to continue.

  6.

First quarter report split: The company foresees a net profit of RMB 700 million to RMB 900 million in Q1, and we estimate that the profit contribution will basically be new energy passenger cars, and the estimated sales volume.

50,000-80,000, bicycle profit is close to 10,000, electronic profits and photovoltaic and fuel oxides are basically equal.

  1. In the short term, the profit side: from multiple perspectives contributes to the increase in profits, and the 19-year performance is growing without worry.

We don’t think the company’s 19-year profit needs to be too pessimistic. The company’s 19-year profit elasticity is broken down as follows: a) In 19, the new policy is set to supplement the transition period. We roughly estimate the company’s bicycle subsidies in the second half of 20185.

50,000 (including land replenishment, assuming 2/3 replacement), the transition period is based on the sales structure forecast, and the bicycle subsidy is 3.

60,000, only national subsidies after the transition period, the average bicycle subsidy1.

60,000, Q1 sales of 70,000 to 80,000 units, assuming the Q2 transition period, sales of 100,000, H2 sales of 220,000, the average replacement replacement is expected to decline by 48%, and bicycles to replenish the amount of decline 2.

70,000.
According to the Air Force’s assumptions, the cost of bicycles decreased by 1 in 19 years.

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About 50,000, reduce the gross profit by 0 through scale effect.

4-0.
50,000, if the price of some parts is increased after the transition period (increasing the price of additional components and upgrades in disguise) or a modest reduction is made, the profit growth of the bicycle will remain or decrease slightly. From a perspective perspective, the company has the ability to absorb most of the impact; b)Fuel passenger cars are expected to have flat sales in 19 years, but the increase in scale effect may bring about breakthrough marginal improvement; c) New energy buses, assuming flat sales, expected net profit substitution; new energy special vehicles, if electric dump trucks can d) Double points: If the industry growth rate changes in 19-20 years, the unit price of double points settlement is expected to increase (more 无锡桑拿网 than 1000-2000 yuan), providing the company with incremental performance; e) Cloud track: 19 years is expected to contribute 10 billion revenue, providingPartial performance increase 2.

In the medium term, the policy-driven termination will provide new incentives for auto companies with double-point assessments. The industry’s bottom line for growth is 35%. The company is expected to use its strong product cycle to consolidate its leading advantages.

Complementary compensation is the only industry promotion policy. Double-point assessment is imminent. According to our calculations, due to the decrease in fuel consumption target value in 19-20 years, the only way for car companies to resolve double-point is to produce new energy vehicles, replacing the future of the new energy passenger vehicle industry.Maintaining a growth rate of more than 35% for two years can make the NEV positive integer in 19-20 completely resist the repayment of negative CAFC points, so the policy driving factors are still there, and we remain optimistic about the industry growth rate.

As a leading company in the industry, the company has obvious first-mover advantages. It is expected to benefit from the supplementary + double-points policy in 19-20 years. The superimposed new product “explosive car” effect has already caused consumers’ spontaneous demand. In the future, the city’s market share will continue to increase and continue to strengthenLeading advantage 3.

In the long run, the company has core technological advantages in the field of new energy vehicles, and will fully enjoy the dividends brought by the electrification and intelligent trend.

The power battery is the top two in China. Currently, Changan and Dongfeng have been reset for external customers. Foreign customers are expected to land in the first half of the year. At the same time, the company also uses its own core technology, IGBT4, in the field of electrical control.

0 technology provides “Chinese core”, currently has mastered IGBT chip design and manufacturing, module packaging, high-power test applications, breaking foreign monopolies.

  4. Profit forecast and rating We don’t think the company’s 19-year profit need to be overly pessimistic. It is optimistic that the company’s market share will continue to increase, and at the same time, the expected supply of external battery supply in the first half of the year will provide a catalytic opportunity.

Net profit forecasts for 2019-2021 are: 41/51/61 billion, EPS1.

50/1.

85/2.

25 yuan, maintain “strongly recommended -A” level.

  Risk warning: New energy vehicle sales are less than expected, and policy implementation is less than expected.